Let me start with where we are right now and then I will tell you the only thing that changes it.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is going to win the 2026 NBA MVP award. It is not a debate. It is not a race anymore. It is a formality that the voting process has not yet officially completed. Barring injury, SGA wins this thing and the conversation should shift to what comes next — because what comes next is genuinely fascinating.
The only argument for anyone else — the only argument I will even entertain — requires one specific thing to happen: the San Antonio Spurs need to pass the Oklahoma City Thunder for the number one seed in the Western Conference. If that happens, we can talk about Victor Wembanyama. If that does not happen, we cannot, because team record is part of this award and you cannot make the case against a 57-16 team.
Let's go through all of it.
The Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Case: It Is What You Think It Is
The numbers first.
SGA is averaging 32.5 points per game. He is shooting over 54 percent from the field. He has 38 games this season with at least 30 points. He leads the league in clutch scoring. He is third in opponent paint field goal percentage among all guards, meaning he is also playing elite defense while carrying the offense every night.
But here is the number that puts everything in context. On March 9th, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander broke Wilt Chamberlain's record of 126 consecutive games with 20 or more points.
Let that breathe for a second. Wilt Chamberlain. A record that has stood since the 1960s. Gone.
He broke it against Nikola Jokić — the only other player who realistically could have taken the MVP from him. He did it while scoring 35 points on 66.7 percent shooting, with 15 assists, zero turnovers, and a game-winning three-pointer with three seconds left when Denver had the game tied. He also became one of only five guards in NBA history — alongside Stephen Curry twice — to post a top-five single-season true shooting percentage for a guard. In a game where he broke Chamberlain's record.
That is not a basketball game. That is a declaration.
The streak itself tells you something important about who SGA is. A consecutive 20-point game streak is the kind of record that requires two things simultaneously: elite talent and elite consistency over a long period of time. You cannot get hot for a week and build a record like that. You have to show up and produce at the highest level, night after night, regardless of the opponent, regardless of travel, regardless of how you feel. Chamberlain did it 126 times in a row. SGA is now on the other side of that number and climbing.
The Thunder are 57-16. They started the season 24-1 and at various points had people genuinely discussing whether they could challenge the Warriors' 73-win record. They did not chase that record — and the right decision was made — but the fact that the conversation happened at all tells you everything about how dominant this team has been and how central SGA is to it.
If SGA wins this MVP he becomes the 13th player in league history to win back-to-back awards. The others on that list: Michael Jordan, LeBron James, Larry Bird, Stephen Curry, Moses Malone, Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, Bill Russell, Wilt Chamberlain, Bob Pettit, Giannis Antetokounmpo, and Magic Johnson. That is the company he is joining.
The Wembanyama Surge: Real, Impressive, and Not Quite Enough
Here is where I will give you the Wembanyama argument, because it deserves to be heard seriously even if it does not change the outcome.
Victor Wembanyama is averaging 24.2 points, 11.1 rebounds, and 3.0 blocks per game. The blocks number is the one that separates this from every other MVP conversation this season. No other candidate is doing anything close to that on the defensive end. He is averaging the most blocks of any MVP candidate by a significant margin and he is doing it while also producing offensively at a level that should not be possible for a player his size.
He is 7-foot-4. He moves like a guard. He creates shots off the dribble that centers are not supposed to be able to create. He has been described by multiple analysts as unlike anything the sport has ever seen, and for once the hyperbole is accurate.
San Antonio's rise up the Western Conference standings has added real weight to his case. The Spurs are a legitimate team and Wembanyama is the reason why. His defensive impact changes games in ways that the box score does not fully capture.
But here is why the argument falls short of changing the result: no player this young, with this few games and this few minutes per game, has ever won the MVP award. The award has historically rewarded durability and consistency over an entire season as much as it rewards peak performance. SGA has played essentially every game. He has delivered at an elite level for seven months. He has not had an off week. He has been the engine of the best team in basketball from October through March.
Wembanyama is building toward something that will be historic. The MVP conversation around him in the next two to three years is going to be extraordinary. This year, he is making an argument. It is just not strong enough to beat the argument SGA has already made.
The only path to a Wembanyama MVP is the Spurs overtaking OKC for the number one seed in the West. Team record matters in this award. If San Antonio finishes first, the voter calculus shifts. But if OKC holds the top seed — which they are in position to do — this remains SGA's award and it is not close.
The Rest of the Field
Nikola Jokić deserves a paragraph of respect because his numbers before the knee injury were historically remarkable. In 32 games he was averaging 29.6 points, 12.2 rebounds, and 11.0 assists while shooting 60.5 percent from the field. In November he shot 64.9 percent for an entire month. These are not normal numbers. These are numbers that win MVP awards in most seasons.
The injury and the 65-game minimum participation requirement cost him the award this year. He is going to return and he is going to be fine and he will be in this conversation again next season. He always is.
Luka Dončić on the Lakers leads the league in scoring at 33.6 points per game. His talent is not in question. His MVP case this year is being blocked by the same thing that blocked it before — OKC is simply a better team than the Lakers, and team record matters.
What Comes Next
Here is the conversation I want to start having right now: can Shai Gilgeous-Alexander become the first player since Larry Bird to win three consecutive MVP awards?
Bird won in 1984, 1985, and 1986. Nobody has done it since. The players who came close — Jordan, LeBron, Giannis — all had their streaks interrupted.
SGA is 27 years old. He is at the peak of his powers. OKC is built around him and built to win for the next several years. Wembanyama will be his primary competition. The next two or three MVP races are going to be some of the best in recent memory.
But this year? This one belongs to Shai. The 20-point streak. The game-winner against the only guy who could beat him. The 57 wins. This one is settled.
— Cannon Simmons, The Glue Guy Podcast