Let me paint you a picture.
It's Sunday afternoon at Augusta National. The azaleas are doing what azaleas do. Jim Nantz is whispering something reverent about the back nine. The leaderboard is tight. And somewhere in the crowd, roughly 40,000 people are collectively holding their breath because golf has done what golf always does — taken every expectation you had walking in and turned it completely sideways.
The Masters is the one sporting event every year that genuinely delivers on its own mythology. It is as good as advertised, every single time, which is rare in a sports world full of things that promise everything and deliver a watered-down version. The Masters does not do watered-down. It's the full pour, no mixer, ice on the side.
This year's field is loaded. Let's get into it.
The Defending Champion Problem — By the Numbers
Rory McIlroy finally won this thing last year. A playoff against Justin Rose, a birdie on the first extra hole, ten years of narrative finally paying off. He completed the career Grand Slam and became the sixth player in history to win all four majors. If you missed it, I genuinely feel bad for you.
Now he comes back to defend, and here is where you need to understand the history.
In 90 Masters tournaments, a defending champion has gone on to win the following year exactly three times. Three. Jack Nicklaus did it in 1965–66. Nick Faldo did it in 1989–90. Tiger Woods did it in 2001–02. That's it. The entire list. Three players in nine decades of tournament history.
Think about that stat the next time someone tells you Rory is the obvious pick. He's going to be excellent. He might genuinely win. But the green jacket does not double up easily, and history is not on his side.
McIlroy also has a back issue this season that altered his preparation, steering him toward Houston rather than his preferred Texas warmup. He's still a massive threat — anytime McIlroy is healthy and on a course he has spent years obsessing over, the whole field is in trouble. But the monkey being off his back changes the psychology in ways nobody can fully predict. The desperation that drove him for a decade is gone. Whether that's a feature or a bug at Augusta is genuinely unclear.
Scottie Scheffler: The Most Interesting Storyline Nobody Is Calling a Storyline
Here is the part of the Scheffler conversation that nobody is having honestly enough: the world number one has been off this year, and not in a minor way.
He opened 2026 with a win at The American Express — his 20th PGA Tour victory, putting him alongside Nicklaus and Tiger as the only players under 30 with 20 wins and four majors. Impressive. And then the wheels started wobbling.
He ranked 44th in strokes gained approach at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. That was his worst in any 72-hole PGA Tour event in four years. His driving has been noticeably shorter and Brandel Chamblee on Golf Channel said something that stopped people mid-drink: "I don't even recognize this golf swing from Scottie Scheffler. It's a foot and a half shorter than last year and the face is wide open." He finished T24 at the Arnold Palmer and T22 at The Players. For Scheffler, those are bad results. He broke a streak of 18 consecutive top-10 finishes.
Then he withdrew from the Houston Open — his last warm-up before Augusta — because his wife is expecting their second child any day now. Which is genuinely wonderful news, but it also means Scheffler will arrive at Augusta after a three-week break with unresolved swing questions and no competitive tune-up.
None of this means he cannot win. His history at Augusta is absurd — two wins in 2022 and 2024, top-10 finishes in 2023 and 2025. He still knows this golf course better than almost anyone in the field. Augusta suits long, accurate ballstrikers with elite iron play, and even a slightly off Scheffler is better than most people at their best.
But this is not the Scheffler who arrives as the automatic answer. This is the Scheffler who arrives with a question mark — which honestly makes the Masters more interesting than it has been in years.
The LIV Factor: They're Here and They're Coming
Something worth paying attention to this week: eleven LIV Golf players will tee it up at Augusta National, and several of them are legitimate contenders.
The Masters has always been one of the few events where the tour divide goes away and everyone competes on the same stage. Augusta does not care what tour card you hold.
Bryson DeChambeau at +1200 deserves real attention. He has won his last two LIV events in Singapore and South Africa, including a playoff victory over Jon Rahm. He finished T6 and T5 in his last two Masters appearances, with his name on the leaderboard on Sunday in 2025. He has solved Augusta's puzzle in a way most people have not given him credit for. This is the only major he has not yet won, which means Augusta is either the place where something finally clicks or the one that perpetually eludes him. Based on recent form, bet on the former.
Jon Rahm at +1200 won the 2023 Masters. He has been in the top 10 at Augusta more often than not throughout his career. Among all players who have played at least 20 rounds here, Rahm ranks behind only Scheffler and Spieth in total strokes gained. He came back from his LIV detour with a win in Hong Kong, and lost to DeChambeau in a playoff in South Africa. Both players are sharp right now. The LIV-to-Masters pipeline this year is real and worth watching.
Patrick Reed and Phil Mickelson also make the trip from LIV. Reed has finished in the top five twice in the last three Masters. Mickelson has three green jackets and at 55 years old is long past his window of contention, but he will be there and he will make things interesting for at least a round or two.
Åberg, Fleetwood, and the Serious Contenders
Ludvig Åberg at +1600 is the name to know if you don't know it yet. He won The Players this year. He was the runner-up at this Masters in a prior edition. He is 26 years old and quietly one of the best ballstrikers in the world. The Players Championship winner coming to Augusta with momentum is a pattern worth noting historically.
Tommy Fleetwood at 35 years old is someone who has been on the edge of major glory for years. He has two top-five finishes at Augusta. He has lost two playoff heartbreakers at other majors. He won the Tour Championship last year, his first win in the United States after years of people wondering when it would finally happen. Fleetwood arriving at Augusta after that breakthrough win feels different than previous years. He has proven he can win in America when everything is clicking. Watch him.
Collin Morikawa at +2700 is the value name worth knowing. He already has a PGA Championship and an Open Championship. He is more consistent at Augusta than at any other major. He is not the sexy pick but he is a legitimate one.
The Two Groups I Actually Can't Stop Thinking About
Here's the honest truth. I have two groups of players I am genuinely rooting for at Augusta this week and I want to tell you about both of them.
The first group is Spieth and Thomas.
Jordan Spieth at Augusta is something different. He won here in 2015. He has finished second. He has played more iconic shots on this golf course than almost anyone in his generation. He is 32 years old and injury-free for the first time in what feels like years, and there are real signs that the game is coming back. He fired an eagle on the first hole at the Valspar and went five-under on his front nine before the wheels came off. He had six birdies in seven holes during a Players Championship round before a double bogey on the last. The talent is there. The finish is not. Not yet.
Among Spieth's 13 PGA Tour wins, four of the next five tournaments on the schedule this spring are ones he has won before — including the Masters. He wakes up this time of year differently than the rest of the year. If he is going to remind everyone what he is capable of, it is going to happen right here, right now, in the next few weeks. I want it to happen. I am not saying it will. But I want it to.
Justin Thomas is back after back surgery that kept him out of the game for five months. His return at the Arnold Palmer was the story of the early spring — four months of BLT restrictions (no bending, lifting, or twisting), gradual rehab, and then competitive golf again for the first time. He made the cut. He found his iron play. He showed signs. The putter needs work but the body is healthy, and a healthy JT at Augusta is a different conversation than the version we have had the last couple of years. He won here in his mind every time he plays it. Now he has the body to go with it again.
The second group is Akshay Bhatia and Chris Gotterup.
These two are young, they are playing great golf, and they are fun to watch. Bhatia won the Arnold Palmer Invitational this year. He is 22 years old and plays with a confidence that borders on arrogance in the best possible way — the kind of player who looks at Augusta National and sees an opportunity rather than an obstacle. He has never finished inside the top 30 here in two prior trips. But he also had not won at the level he is winning at now.
Gotterup is 26 and has won three times this season. Three. The Scottish Open, the Sony Open, and the WM Phoenix Open. He is currently sitting in the top five of the FedEx Cup standings and playing some of the most consistent golf of anyone in the field. He is a Masters rookie who earned his way in and should not be underestimated simply because his name is not yet on the marquee.
The 26-and-under crowd has done most of the damage on the PGA Tour this year. In 2022, Scheffler was in this age range when he won his first green jacket. These things happen.
What to Watch
Pay attention to who is patient through the first two rounds. Augusta rewards players who do not force anything early. The tournament is not won Thursday or Friday. It is survived.
Watch the weather. Augusta plays dramatically differently when the course is soft versus firm. A soft Augusta rewards aggression. A firm Augusta rewards patience. Know which tournament you are watching before locking in on any predictions.
And watch the Saturday night leaderboard. The actual Masters champion almost never leads after 54 holes. Players four to six shots back entering Sunday have won this tournament more times than anyone can count. Do not fall in love with whoever is in the lead Saturday evening.
Final Thoughts
This Masters has no obvious answer. For the first time in a while, the dominant force is not dominant in the way we have come to expect. Scheffler is off. McIlroy is defending against history. The LIV contingent is sharp. The young guns are ready. Spieth and Thomas are healthy again.
Good luck in your local Masters pools. Tip well. And if the weather is holding up wherever you are, get out and play some golf this week. It is the right thing to do.
The 2026 Masters begins Thursday, April 9. Set your Sunday afternoons accordingly.
— Cannon Simmons, The Glue Guy Podcast